Leakage and boosting effects in environmental governance: a framework for analysis

In an increasingly interconnected world, leakage-broadly understood as unintended displacement of impacts caused by an environmental policy intervention-has become a major governance concern. Yet, leakage remains both loosely conceptualized and poorly understood as a phenomenon in policy making. To fill this gap and broaden the leakage research agenda, we conduct a state-of-the-art review of scientific assessments on leakage (particularly on land use) and combine it with conceptual and analytical frameworks from the environmental governance literature. We then propose a rigorous definition of leakage, discuss frequently overlooked political dimensions, and develop a typology of leakage pathways. Our analysis of leakage through a governance lens yields five core insights: (1) Leakage is not simply a mechanistic phenomenon, but a complex governance issue involving questions of institutional fit, interactions, and political agency. (2) Although the land use literature traditionally focuses on leakage through markets or activity displacement, a governance lens shows that it also occurs through information, motivation, or institutional channels. (3) As policy-makers may act strategically, the unintentionally of leakage should not be assumed but rather become an object of research. (4) A phenomenon not initially regarded as leakage can come to be framed as such through the action of \u27problem brokers\u27 and changes in policy fields. (5) Policy-makers and researchers should broaden their focus from only avoiding leakage to seeking positive spillovers and institutional synergies. These insights are illustrated with examples from two cases relating to land use policy in Brazil and Southeast Asia

Factors influencing the participation to individual and community forest conservation compensation agreements in Bolivia

The existing literature on conservation compensation programs shows that their outcomes depend on whether the project design correctly matches the causes of land-use behaviors as well as succeeds to motivate people to conserve nature in a profound and sustained manner by building on different types of motivations, without crowding-out the intrinsic ones. This study analyzed farmers' motivations to conserve forests or deforest in relation to a regional in-kind compensation program in the Bolivian Chaco. In this program, upstream households can voluntarily engage to protect their forests and water sources in exchange of in-kind compensations. The objective of this study was to test whether the program is indeed targeting the causes of deforestation behaviors and supporting existing motivations from local land users. We used deforestation data quantified on each individual household plot, using Hansen et al. (2013) global forest cover loss dataset, and a household survey conducted prior to start of the program in control communities (to which compensations have not been offered) and treatment communities (to which compensations have been offered). Firstly, we identified the causes of deforestation by ccomparing individual households' deforestation data against households' characteristics using multivariate tobit models, only using the communities to which the program was not proposed. Secondly, we identified the motivations for and barriers to participation in the program by comparing the characteristics of households that decided to participate and those that decided not to participate using multivariate logistic models. We compared the causes of deforestation to the motivations to participate in conservation program, classified into different types: financial and material motivations, social motivations and environmental motivations. We showed that the program is not targeting the socio-economic causes of deforestation through its compensations but that its communication and motivation strategy to align with local intrinsic motivations and social norms may be working. In addition to shedding a nexw light on the roots of farmers' deforestation behaviors in the Bolivian Chaco, these results will allow improving the design of conservation interventions so that they are consistent with sakgolders' motivations and assure the long term success of forest conservation

Land system science and sustainable development of the earth system: A global land project perspective

Land systems are the result of human interactions with the natural environment. Understanding the drivers, state, trends and impacts of different land systems on social and natural processes helps to reveal how changes in the land system affect the functioning of the socio-ecological system as a whole and the tradeoff these changes may represent. The Global Land Project has led advances by synthesizing land systems research across different scales and providing concepts to further understand the feedbacks between social-and environmental systems, between urban and rural environments and between distant world regions. Land system science has moved from a focus on observation of change and understanding the drivers of these changes to a focus on using this understanding to design sustainable transformations through stakeholder engagement and through the concept of land governance. As land use can be seen as the largest geo-engineering project in which mankind has engaged, land system science can act as a platform for integration of insights from different disciplines and for translation of knowledge into action

Large greenhouse gas savings due to changes in the post-Soviet food systems

As the global food system contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, understanding the sources of GHG emissions embodied in different components of food systems is important. The collapse of the Soviet Union triggered a massive restructuring of the domestic food systems, namely declining consumption of animal products, cropland abandonment, and a major restructuring of agricultural trade. However, how these complex changes have affected global GHG emissions is uncertain. Here, we quantified the net GHG emissions associated with changes in the former Soviet Union's food systems. Changes in food production, consumption, and trade together resulted in a net emissions reduction of 7.61 Gt carbon dioxide equivalents from 1992 to 2011. For comparison, this corresponds to one quarter of the CO2 emissions from deforestation in Latin America from 1991 to 2011. The key drivers of the emissions reductions were the decreasing beef consumption in the 1990s, increasing beef imports after 2000, mainly from South America, and carbon sequestration in soils on abandoned cropland. Ongoing transformations of the food systems in the former Soviet Union, however, suggest emissions will likely rebound. The results highlight the importance of considering agricultural production, land-use change, trade, and consumption when assessing countries emissions portfolios. Moreover, we demonstrated how emissions reductions that originate from a reduction in the extent and intensity of agricultural production can be compromised by increasing emissions embodied in rising imports of agricultural commodities.Volkswagen Foundation (BALTRAK)the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) (GERUKA)The Swedish Research Council FormasThe Russian Foundation for Basic ResearchRussian Government Program of Competitive Growth of Kazan Federal UniversityEuropean Research Council (ERC)Peer Reviewe

Understanding the Stickiness of Commodity Supply Chains Is Key to Improving Their Sustainability

Commodity trade is central to the global economy but is also associated with socio-environmental impacts, for example, deforestation, especially in producer countries. It is crucial to understand how geographic sourcing patterns of commodities and commercial relationships between places and actors influence land-use dynamics, socio-economic development, and environmental degradation. Here, we propose a concept and methodological approach to analyze the geographic stickiness of commodity supply chains, which is the maintenance of supply network configurations over time and across perturbations. We showcase policy-relevant metrics for all Brazilian soy exports between 2003 and 2017, using high-resolution supply chain data from www.trase.earth. We find that the Brazilian soy traders with the largest market share exhibit stickier geographic sourcing patterns, and that the supply network configurations between production places and traders become increasingly sticky in subsequent years. Understanding trade stickiness is crucial for supply chain accountability, because it directly affects the effectiveness of zero-deforestation commitments

Frontier metrics for a process-based understanding of deforestation dynamics

Agricultural expansion into tropical and subtropical forests often leads to major social-ecological trade-offs. Yet, despite ever-more detailed information on where deforestation occurs, how agriculture expands into forests remains unclear, which is hampered by a lack of spatially and temporally detailed reconstruction of agricultural expansion. Here, we developed and mapped a novel set of metrics that quantify agricultural frontier processes at unprecedented spatial and temporal detail. Specifically, we first derived consistent annual time series of land-use/cover to, second, describe archetypical patterns of frontier expansion, pertaining to the speed, the diffusion and activity of deforestation, as well as post-deforestation land use. We exemplify this approach for understanding agricultural frontier expansion across the entire South American Chaco (1.1 million km2), a global deforestation hotspot. Our study provides three major insights. First, agricultural expansion has been rampant in the Chaco, with more than 19.3 million ha of woodlands converted between 1985 and 2020, including a surge in deforestation after 2019. Second, land-use trajectories connected to frontier processes have changed in major ways over the 35 year study period we studied, including substantial regional variations. For instance, while ranching expansion drove most of the deforestation in the 1980s and 1990s, cropland expansion dominated during the mid-2000s in Argentina, but not in Paraguay. Similarly, 40% of all areas deforested were initially used for ranching, but later on converted to cropping. Accounting for post-deforestation land-use change is thus needed to properly attribute deforestation and associated environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions or biodiversity loss, to commodities. Finally, we identified major, recurrent frontier types that may be a useful spatial template for land governance to match policies to specific frontier situations. Collectively, our study reveals the diversity of frontier processes and how frontier metrics can capture and structure this diversity to uncover major patterns of human–nature interactions, which can be used to guide spatially-targeted policies.H2020 European Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663Belgian Federal Science Policy Officehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002749Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschafthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Peer Reviewe

Supply, use and sustainability of ecosystem services in tropical forests: insights from the Dja region in southeastern Cameroon

Tropical forests provide numerous ecosystem services (ES) to human populations, but human-induced deforestation, degradation and defaunation are major threats to the structure, diversity and functioning of these ecosystems. In central Africa, tens of millions of people depend on the forest ecosystems for their daily livelihoods. In the specific context of extremely high poverty, the growing human population and their needs for forest products increase the threats on forest ecosystems. An integrated assessment of ES is needed in order to improve the sustainability of their use and to design adaptive management strategies. Here, we assessed the supply and use of ES by local populations in three contrasted forest management types in southeastern Cameroon: a protected area, a Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)-certified logging concession, and three community forests

Using supply chain data to monitor zero deforestation commitments: an assessment of progress in the Brazilian soy sector

Zero deforestation commitments (ZDCs) are voluntary initiatives where companies or countries pledge to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains. These commitments offer much promise for sustainable commodity production, but are undermined by a lack of transparency about their coverage and impacts. Here, using state-of-the-art supply chain data, we introduce an approach to evaluate the impact of ZDCs, linking traders and international markets to commodity-associated deforestation in the sub-national jurisdictions from which they source. We focus on the Brazilian soy sector, where we find that ZDC coverage is increasing, but under-represents the Cerrado biome where most soy-associated deforestation currently takes place. Though soy-associated deforestation declined in the Amazon after the introduction of the Soy Moratorium, we observe no change in the exposure of companies or countries adopting ZDCs to soy-associated deforestation in the Cerrado. We further assess the formulation and implementation of these ZDCs and identify several systematic weaknesses that must be addressed to increase the likelihood that they achieve meaningful reductions in deforestation in future. As the 2020 deadline for several of these commitments approaches, our approach can provide independent monitoring of progress toward the goal of ending commodity-associated deforestation

Toward spatial fit in the governance of global commodity flows

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MGlobal commodity flows between distally connected social-ecological systems pose important challenges to sustainability governance. These challenges are partly due to difficulties in designing and implementing governance institutions that fit or match the scale of the environmental and social problems generated in such telecoupled systems. We focus on the spatial dimension of governance fit in relation to global commodity flows and telecoupled systems. Specifically, we draw on examples from land use and global agricultural commodity governance to examine two overarching types of governance mismatches: boundary mismatches and resolution mismatches. We argue that one way to address mismatches is through governance rescaling and illustrate this approach with reference to examples of three broad types of governance approaches: trade agreements, due diligence laws, and landscape approaches to supply chain governance. No single governance approach is likely to address all mismatches, highlighting the need to align multiple governance approaches to govern telecoupled systems effectively

Archetype analysis in sustainability research : meanings, motivations, and evidence-based policy making

Archetypes are increasingly used as a methodological approach to understand recurrent patterns in variables and processes that shape the sustainability of social-ecological systems. The rapid growth and diversification of archetype analyses has generated variations, inconsistencies, and confusion about the meanings, potential, and limitations of archetypes. Based on a systematic review, a survey, and a workshop series, we provide a consolidated perspective on the core features and diverse meanings of archetype analysis in sustainability research, the motivations behind it, and its policy relevance. We identify three core features of archetype analysis: recurrent patterns, multiple models, and intermediate abstraction. Two gradients help to apprehend the variety of meanings of archetype analysis that sustainability researchers have developed: (1) understanding archetypes as building blocks or as case typologies and (2) using archetypes for pattern recognition, diagnosis, or scenario development. We demonstrate how archetype analysis has been used to synthesize results from case studies, bridge the gap between global narratives and local realities, foster methodological interplay, and transfer knowledge about sustainability strategies across cases. We also critically examine the potential and limitations of archetype analysis in supporting evidence-based policy making through context-sensitive generalizations with case-level empirical validity. Finally, we identify future priorities, with a view to leveraging the full potential of archetype analysis for supporting sustainable development